• The last three cycle bottoms for Bitcoin have seen similar moves from the 200-week average, said analyst Plan B. 
• CryptoQuant data showed futures demand has remained positive while spot demand has remained negative. 
• Traders are also watching this week’s CLARITY Act, FOMC, and Bank of Japan decisions before adding more leverage. 

Bitcoin (BTC) has broken away from the 200-week moving average for the fourth time in ten years said analyst Plan B on Monday. The last three times were all cycle bottoms and those who bought in those points made "generational wealth". 

However, this time the problem is who is buying. Spot demand is still negative, but CryptoQuant data shows the advance is running on futures positioning.

In his X post, crypto analyst PlanB set Bitcoin at $77,000 against a 200-week level of $65,000, a gap of about 18% by those figures. “Every cycle bottom happened when the rainbow turned blue,” said the analyst. The chart shows the Bitcoin price as a colored line above its 200-week average. The color tracks how far apart the two have drifted. Blue means the price has fallen back to the average. 

The line has gone blue three times before, around 2015, late 2018 into 2019, and 2022 into 2023. Each of those turns marked a cycle bottom, the analyst added. Buyers who stepped in at those three points made "generational wealth," he said. The price has now lifted off the average again, and the line has moved off blue for a fourth time.

Spot Demand Tells A Different Story

However, CryptoQuant's demand data shows a counterargument. Rallies without sustained spot demand are less convincing, CryptoQuant analyst COINDREAM said in an X post, noting that spot demand remains weak and the advance has no solid support underneath it.  

CryptoQuant’s 30-day demand chart showed futures demand staying positive while spot demand remained negative. The chart labeled the current stage "weak spot support" and marked a similar futures-led rebound in January and February, with spot demand negative through it. Simply put, that would mean the rally is running on leverage, not on people buying coins. 

Traders Brace For A Busy Week

Easing off that leverage, Michaël van de Poppe said on X on Monday that a vote on the CLARITY Act, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and the Bank of Japan rate decision all land this week. He said he would remain relatively calm about leverage until then. He also said the bounce makes it likely that traders will chase longs. 

Bitcoin’s price traded at $78,802, up over 1% in the last 24 hours. On Stocktwits, the retail sentiment around Bitcoin remained at ‘extremely bearish’ levels, accompanied by ‘low’ volumes over the past 24 hours.

Read also: Tom Lee's BMNR Adds 1 BTC, Expands ORBS Stake By $7M Amid Ethereum Buying Spree

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